The Trump administration on Thursday denied reports that it planned to revoke temporary legal status for Ukrainian refugees, but the rumor spread at a time when both Washington is putting pressure on the Kyiv government and Russia has loosened their rules of engagement on the battlefield.
Initial reports from Reuters suggested that Trump would revoke temporary protected status (TPS) for the roughly 240,000 Ukrainians who have arrived in the U.S. since the start of the Russian invasion in 2022. Analysts saw the reported move as part of a broader effort to coax Zelensky to the negotiating table, but it ultimately proved untrue.
“This is more fake news from Reuters based on anonymous sources who have no idea what they are talking about. The truth: no decision has been made at this time,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X.
The move itself would square with Trump’s other actions on Ukraine of late, however. Earlier this week, he suspended all military aid to Ukraine, reportedly including intelligence sharing. He has further derided Zelensky as a “dictator without elections” and publicly insisted he was not serious about pursuing peace.
Preceding the seismic diplomatic shift was a disastrous meeting in the Oval Office that saw Zelensky interrupt Vice President JD Vance, leading to a shouting match with Trump and his removal from the premises. The foreign leader had been set to sign a mineral exploitation deal with the United States, though that fell through. Efforts to salvage the agreement have persisted.
In the meantime, Zelensky appears to face pressure from both directions as reports of the Trump administration meeting with members of the Ukrainian opposition have surfaced and the Russians escalate their attacks on key infrastructure.
Trump team’s meeting with opposition leaders
Trump has called for Ukraine to hold elections, though Zelensky has insisted that it is not possible to do so under wartime conditions. Russia held elections in 2023 and, though Moscow faced accusations of rigging the contest, the election itself did take place.
Elections were scheduled to be held in Ukraine in March or April 2024, but Zelensky declared martial law in February of 2022. Elections have thus been suspended because Ukrainian law forbids presidential elections when martial law is in effect. By comparison, the United States held Presidential elections during the Civil War, and both World Wars I and II.
Reports emerged this week that the Trump administration had held secret meetings with former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and members of the party of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
“Poroshenko’s people and Yulia, they’re all talking to Trump World, positioning themselves as people who would be easier to work with. And people who would consent to many of the things that Zelensky is not agreeing to,” an unnamed Republican foreign policy expert told Politico.
Neither Poroshenko nor Tymoshenko poll competitively with Zelensky, whose nearest competitor is former Ukrainian military leader Valerii Zaluzhzhny. Former Zelensky advisor Alexey Arestovych has already indicated his presidential aspirations, though he has faced accusations of pro-Russian sympathies and is not expected to be competitive.
Ukrainian Institute of Politics Director Ruslan Bortnick suggested to Politico that members of the Ukrainian parliament were working to make inroads with Trump in light of an apparent shift in public attitude within Ukraine toward favoring a diplomatic end to the war.
Russians on the offense
As for the impact of Moscow, Ukraine appears to be feeling the heat as the Kremlin ramps up its war machine for the spring. In mid-2024, Ukrainian forces invaded Russian territory directly in the Kursk Oblast, taking a sizable chunk of territory that has since withered to the border city of Sudzha and its surrounding suburbs.
Russian forces recently crossed into Ukraine's Sumy Oblast and established a position overlooking the main road from Sudzha into Ukraine. Video footage of the road shows a graveyard of military vehicles. The Ukrainian’s main supply route is at risk of being cut.
On other fronts, Russians have also posted advances in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in recent weeks. Apart from advances on the front, Russia has unleashed substantial missile and drone attacks in recent days, overwhelming air defenses and inflicting considerable civilian casualties.
Ceasefire for minerals deal?
Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that the Trump administration was pressuring Zelensky to commit to a ceasefire as a condition for signing the upended minerals deal. That proposal remained unconfirmed as of press time.
Trump Middle Eastern Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to meet with Ukrainian diplomats in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“We’ll see if he follows through,” Witkoff told reporters of Zelensky’s offer to sign the minerals deal. Over the weekend Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “President Zelensky and I had a very tough 45 minute meeting at a very loud decibel level” when first hashing out the deal. He further confirmed that Zelensky had said he would sign the deal twice before coming to the White House only to back out before his calamitous appearance in the Oval Office.
It remains unclear whether the Russians would agree to a ceasefire, even should Zelensky sign an agreement and commitment to negotiations in earnest.
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